Got Any Predictions For The Fall?
Credit: Composite / BG
April 27, 2016

Click the map to create your own at

The map above shows the toss-up states according to 270 To Win. I added Pennsylvania and Oregon to the Democratic side so I could embed the map -- they make you pick something before you can do that.

It's amazing how much of this election is already decided, simply because of the Electoral College. New York and California, both heavily Democratic and rich in electors, give the Democratic Presidential candidate a head start. Other states like Alabama and much of the deep south are so red they don't warrant a campaign stop from the Republican candidate.

Vice Presidential Picks

Is assuming a Donald Trump nomination a bit risky? That or a World War 3 convention that absolutely assures a Democratic slide to the White House for Cruz or whoever. So who is The Donald going to pick for his running mate? Chris Christie? Ben Carson? Kid Rock? The mind boggles. The Fiscal Times has a slideshow of 16 possibilities, but half of them have said under no circumstances would they share a ticket with that buffoon. Hog castrator Joni Ernst is on there, though. Good one.

Bernie Sanders has floated Elizabeth Warren as a running mate, but that seems highly unlikely. Sure, Bernie has run an unconventional campaign, but even still two liberal New Englanders on the same ticket defies all wisdom, assuming he can still achieve the nomination, which even most Bernie supporters like me, are acknowledging is a reach.

Hillary Clinton has many people to choose from. Some have suggested Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, a solid populist and swing state favorite. Cory Booker is also on the short list, though many feel a New York / New Jersey ticket is, like Sanders/Warren, not geographically diverse enough. My pick for her (and I'm far from alone) is HUD Secretary Julian Castro. Politico makes the case:

Along the way, Castro’s inner circle of aides and advisers have come to see Clinton’s running mate decision as a pretty simple math problem: it’ll be a white man, a black man or a brown man, they figure.

And then they run it down from there: the white man’s Sen. Tim Kaine, and though he’s got a lot of good government experience and the geography that could help with Ohio and Pennsylvania on top of his own Virginia, they say that at 58 he’d be too old to provide a generational contrast to the 68-year old Clinton, and too white for a campaign being defined by immigration reform and Black Lives Matter and Donald Trump’s attacks on minorities. Yes, Kaine speaks Spanish—and fluently, from his days as a missionary in Honduras, as opposed to Castro, who like so many first-generation Americans, had parents who only spoke English with him—but they don’t think it’ll go over too well for Clinton to try explaining to Latinos that at least the white guy she picked over a Latino speaks their language.

Of course, Castro demurs when asked if he's interested, but that's bull. When does a HUD director take time out in January to go on Stephen Colbert?

So here is an opportunity for you to make your predictions. How will your state vote this November? Who would you pick for The Donald's running mate (points if it's funny)?

And I'm really curious how Fox News is going to spin this general election. Do you think Karl Rove will have another meltdown on election night? Will Megyn Kelly have to walk down to vote count headquarters to confirm just how bad it is? Particularly if the Repubicans lose the Senate, which is becoming more likely by the day.

Let us know what you think in comments. And thanks.

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