(image from HuffPo)
A fascinating article over at Progress Illinois breaks down how Obama's massive 50-state voter registration drive has the ability to completely change the map in November. Using projections from fivethirtyeight.com's remarkably accurate Poblano, PI proves that moderate boosts in three key demographics -- African-Americans, Latinos and 18-24 year olds -- could result in huge electoral hauls; somewhere on the order of 300+ electoral votes.
If it sounds like a tall order, that's because it is. But the numbers don't lie and a hugely successful registration drive has the ability to register literally millions of new voters and catch the GOP completely off-guard. The entire article is worth the read, but here is what the article's author refers to as "The Full Monty":
The first, titled the “40/20 Plan,” increases the youth vote by 40 percent and the African-American vote by 20 percent, while keeping the Latino vote at the 2004 level. The “40/30/20 Plan” projects a 40 percent increase among 18-24 year-olds, a 30 percent increase among Latinos, and a 20 percent in increase in the black vote. Finally comes the “Best Case Scenario,” which assumes a 40 percent increase among African-Americans and a 50 percent increase in both the youth and Latino vote nationally.
The “40/20 Plan” alone increases Obama’s chances of winning from 49.5 percent to 68.3 percent. The “40/30/20 Plan,” meanwhile, lifts this probability over 70 percent.
“If Obama wins [Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan], he’s going to have a tough time losing anyway,” Poblano said. “But now you give him a margin for error where if something goes wrong in Ohio – if you’re winning North Carolina and Iowa and Colorado, it’s a very robust scenario for him with a lot of Plan A's, Plan B's, and Plan C's to win the election.”