September 22, 2014

This is why Chuck Todd and Meet the Press are largely irrelevant. This country is a little bit more complex than latté liberals and Southern fried chicken, and the midterms do not depend on which camp you fall into. But that didn't stop Chuckles from going there:

So what does all this mean? When Democrats had the advantage two years ago, President Obama essentially swept the board. He won all but one of the nine tossup states. He had a lot of Starbucks states, essentially. This year, it's the Republican edge. The GOP is almost certain to pick up states in Chick-Fil-A country, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Don't forget, they have Arkansas, Louisiana here. These Republicans have a lot of opportunities to win Senate seats in areas that are favorable to them.

Never mind policies. Never mind that even 59 percent of Republicans believe their party is out of touch with their concerns. Never mind all of that, because Chick Fil-A and Starbucks.

He wraps it up this way:

So there you have it. It's Starbucks country versus Chick-Fil-A country. Who's going to turn out in 2014? It could be advantage to the chicken. We'll see. Election will be determined between the big cities and rural America. And that's the way to look-- one way to look at this 2014 map.

Well, yes, it's one way to look at it. But you know, women live in those rural areas too. And women don't always fall into lockstep with Chick Fil-A policies or Starbucks. Lots of them like good old fashioned home cooking and some down-to-earth realities. Lots of them like having control over their bodies, and health care.

This isn't to say that there aren't some voters who insist on voting against their own interests. Witness this Kentuckian, who is benefiting greatly from the Affordable Care Act via Kynect, the state-based exchange:

The Affordable Care Act allowed Robin Evans, an eBay warehouse packer earning $9 an hour, to sign up for Medicaid this year. She is being treated for high blood pressure and Graves’ disease, an autoimmune disorder, after years of going uninsured and rarely seeing doctors.

“I’m tickled to death with it,” Ms. Evans, 49, said of her new coverage as she walked around the Kentucky State Fair recently with her daughter, who also qualified for Medicaid under the law. “It’s helped me out a bunch.”

But Ms. Evans scowled at the mention of President Obama — “Nobody don’t care for nobody no more, and I think he’s got a lot to do with that,” she explained — and said she would vote this fall for Senator Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican and minority leader, who is fond of saying the health care law should be “pulled out root and branch.”

Ms. Evans said she did not want the law repealed but had too many overall reservations about Democrats to switch her vote. “Born and raised Republican,” she said of herself. “I ain’t planning on changing now.”

That's a voter who isn't going to change even if Republicans yank that health care away from her and make sure that $9 per hour job turns into one that pays $6 per hour. It's too bad there are voters like that, but there are, and it's safe to say there's some race issues wrapped up in that statement of hers about nobody caring for nobody anymore.

Here's a simpler view than Chuckles'. When Democrats vote, they win in these purple states. Republicans understand this, which is why they are working overtime to keep Democrats from voting.

The midterm outcome will hinge on turnout. That's all.

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