January 16, 2024

Who came in second in Iowa, and does it matter? Nope. You will hear TV bobbleheads talk about Trump dominating the Republican party (and it's true!) but the general election winner will be the one who wins independents and swing-state Republicans. Via the Associated Press:

The key for DeSantis earning a second-place finish was conservatives, who favored him over Haley even though they liked Trump most of all. About 7 in 10 Iowans who caucused define themselves as conservatives. A majority of caucusgoers favor a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, and DeSantis performed slightly better than Haley among that group.

Haley finished narrowly behind DeSantis. She was the top candidate of the most anti-Trump Republicans in the state, including those who believe the former president did something illegal in one of the pending criminal cases against him. She was also the top choice for those Republican caucusgoers who voted for Biden in the 2020 election. But she faced headwinds in a state that largely saw itself as loyal to Trump and his agenda.

DeSantis performs best among the caucusgoers dissatisfied with Trump but who said they would ultimately vote for him in the general election.

Most Iowa caucusgoers for either Haley or DeSantis say they would be dissatisfied with Trump as their party’s nominee. But unlike DeSantis’ backers, two-thirds of Haley’s caucusgoers say they would not ultimately vote for Trump in the general election.

So Nikki Haley was mostly a protest vote. How does she sell that as a win?

Remember some of the past Iowa victors:

So the remaining Republicans running against Trump (with the recent exception of Chris Christie) refused to take him on and attack his character. How'd that work out for you, guys?

Meanwhile, in Trump's victory speech, he sounds more and more like a parody of himself.

Lee from Iowa explains on Twitter that Trump actually had a weak showing:

Iowa GOP CAUCUS Reality:

Caucuses choose DELEGATES for county Party conventions. Delegates go to County level, spend a long day at a junior high somewhere, & pick State delegates. A smaller #, usually ambitious to get picked for the National Convention.

Trump only won half.

The other surviving candidates will be vying to pick up any delegates Vivek got. As others drop out, delegates who didn’t want trump will move to surviving candidates.

It’s actually quite pitiful that a former potus only picked up half Iowa’s GOP delegates. 2/2

It’s especially shameful that Trump only picked up half Iowa's Republican delegates, given that Iowa’s Polar Vortex and really scary road conditions last night meant only the most fanatic supporters came out to the Republican caucuses.

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