— September 30, 2026

Ken Paxton appears to have a very different view of Donald Trump’s recent Republican convention than the one the public has heard.

According to audio obtained by The New York Times, Paxton told conservative donors at a private fundraiser that Republican polling numbers took a hit following the GOP’s Dallas convention earlier this month. When asked whether Trump was a drag on the campaign, Paxton acknowledged that the numbers had fallen, saying that “everybody’s numbers dropped” after the convention.

“So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers," Paxton said. "Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”

That assessment is notably different from the public message coming from Paxton’s campaign. His adviser, Nick Maddux, dismissed the report as misleading and said the campaign’s latest internal polling shows Paxton ahead and that his numbers have improved since early September.

The episode adds another level of tension to a Texas Senate race in which Trump has strongly backed Paxton and is expected to campaign with him this week.

Recent polls show that Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is ahead of Paxton by about 4.6 points. And when Trump hears that Paxton trash-talked him, those numbers are sure to plunge. And to Trump, the size of his crowds means everything, to the point that he hugely exaggerates the turnout.

This time, though, Paxton accidentally debunked Trump's crowd size, and it was caught on audio. Sorry, dude, but Daniel Dale's job is taken. Maybe he can find a corrupt firm to bounce the numbers around for them.

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