October 19, 2022

Oh, and Joe Biden's approval ratings are back up, too! Via Morning Consult:

Democrats’ Generic Ballot Lead Plateaus: Congressional Democrats lead their Republican counterparts by 3 percentage points on the generic ballot (48% to 45%) among likely voters, with another 7% undecided three weeks from Election Day. The figures have been rather consistent over the past couple weeks, after Democrats topped out at a 5-point lead in early October.

Biden’s Approval Rating Ticks Up: According to the latest surveys conducted Oct. 14-16, 46% of likely voters approve of Biden’s job performance (up from 44% a week ago), while 53% disapprove (down from 54%).

Democrats Hold Enthusiasm Edge: For the fifth week in a row, Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans to say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, 63% to 58%. The 5-point gap is the largest Democratic advantage Morning Consult has recorded in 2022.

Democrats Gain Trust on the Economy: Congressional Republicans are favored over their Democratic counterparts to handle the economy, 46% to 39%. But that 7-point gap marks a relatively consistent tightening since mid-June, when Republicans had a 16-point advantage on the question.

I saw Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark and pollster for the Republican Accountability Project, who said on Morning Joe this morning that while voters are not listing abortion as a main concern, they are telling pollsters they won't vote for specific Republican candidates because of their extreme positions on abortion. That bodes well.

She did warn that they saw a trend toward ticket-splitting: Independents who said they would vote for Oz Mehmet over John Fetterman.

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