That Was Fast! Hillary's Post-Convention Poll Bump Dumps Trump
July 31, 2016

I expect there will be more polls like this, which are even more favorable toward Clinton. After both conventions, it appears to me that Trump will garner the support of old racists and little more.

Part of Clinton’s gains can be attributed to her increased support from independent voters and men. In the new poll, Clinton leads Trump by one point, 43 percent to 42 percent, among men. Last week, Trump beat Clinton by 8 points among men. She also picked up four points from independent voters compared with last week’s poll, but almost one-third (30 percent) of respondents are still undecided in the race.

The youngest voters back Clinton overwhelmingly, with 53 percent of millennials backing her over just one-fourth who support Trump. Voters 65 or older back Trump by a similar margin: 52 percent to 34 percent.

With both candidates coming in for heavy criticism from their opponents across the aisle during the past two weeks, voter sentiment has shifted quickly. Following the RNC in Cleveland, Trump was viewed favorably by 42 percent of voters and Clinton was viewed favorably by just 37 percent of respondents. But following the Democratic convention in Philadelphia, Clinton is viewed favorably by 43 percent of voters polled, compared with 39 percent who view Trump favorably.

When voters were asked to also consider Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, it proved beneficial for Clinton, who leads Trump by 5 points in a three-way race.

From the day after the close of the Democratic convention:


There's another poll out there that has her up 15 points over Trump among likely voters, but it's a fairly unknown pollster at this point.

The figures, taken from an online nationwide survey conducted on Friday and published by RABA Research, gave Clinton 46% support to Trump’s 31% among likely voters. The Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, was at 7%. A poll taken by the same company on 12 July had put Clinton 12 points up on Trump.

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