September 16, 2019

In his Reality Check segment, New Day's John Avlon explains that Trump's tweeting about "fake polls" means the numbers must not be looking so good.

"But that's despite a CNN poll from June that found a majority of Americans think trump will win re-election and there's a lot of confidence coming from the White House. They point to the power of incumbency, a huge money advantage and at least, to date, a strong economy.

"But go back to the data and you'll see that there is real reason for Trump to be nervous. First, he's the only president in the history of the Gallup poll never to hit 50% approval. That's despite the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 50 years. That's not all. A new CNN poll shows a stunning six in ten voters say that Trump doesn't deserve a second term, with a dismal 39% approval rating. Dig deeper and you will see a stark enthusiasm gap. A recent Washington Post/ABC poll found 27% of folks strongly approval of Trump's performance, while 48% strongly disapprove. Another poll, 53% of registered voters say they would definitely vote against him.

"We should know that national numbers don't mean a whole lot, right? Let's look at Trump's approval rating in key swing states. In Florida, Trump's got a 44% approval rating, despite 54% of folks saying they're financially better off than in 2016. How about Pennsylvania? 42% of Keystone State voters say Trump is doing a great job. Michigan, where Trump won by 10,000 votes, his approval rate down to 44%. Wisconsin, where a September poll showed that Trump is at 45%.

"Trump's underwater in states he easily won, like Ohio, where only 43% of voters approach of the job he's doing. North Carolina, the most recent Gallup numbers put Trump at 45%, and 45% in Iowa, a state he won by almost ten points. Underwater in Texas, 45%. A poll last week showing that 48% of Lone Star voters say they definitely vote against him.

He said polls are just snapshots in time, but that the trends are definitely not in Trump's favor.

"No wonder the president keeps insisting that internal polling looks great, best ever. But there is, of course, still plenty of time for Democrats to screw this up. Polls show that Trump's strongest re-election argument is to run against a socialist, in which Trump wins by a six-point spread. Republicans are trying to label Democrats as radical socialists and folks on the far left could be doing his work for him.

"It might explain why Joe Biden has the biggest lead over Trump in head-to-head matchups: Florida 9 points, Pennsylvania 11 points, Wisconsin 9, Ohio 8 points. Other Democrats often beat Trump in states like this, Sanders and Warren, but by consistently smaller margins.

"We're still more than 13 months out from election day, but right now, the numbers show that President Trump is in an objective and possibly unprecedented position of weakness. And that's your reality check."

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