December 6, 2019

Things are looking up -- and by that, I mean, bad for Trump. Latest poll numbers show he's not doing well in states where he overperformed in 2016.

"So Sam Stein, as we look at these polls, let's go back to the 2016 election and remember it was something like 77,744 votes, something like that, across three states," Willie Geist said on Morning Joe.

"Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin in this new poll, president down 14. Michigan, down 14. Pennsylvania, down 7. You go across some other states too that will decide this election, Nevada, Arizona, Florida obviously.

"I guess the question is, the people who took a flyer on Donald Trump in 2016 for all the reasons that Jon (Meachum) just laid out because he was disruptive and was going to overturn the tables in Washington, what do they do now? His hard core support is not going anywhere. The Hillary Clinton hardcore supporters aren't going anywhere in terms of Democratic support. What about those people in the middle among those 77,000 votes who took a flyer on Donald Trump?"

"I mean there's the million dollars question, right, is do they come back to support Trump? And it's not rocket science here, the Trump campaign is going to try to do everything it can to tar whoever the Democratic nominee is to depress his or her numbers and then hope that you can get, you know, squeak by another electoral college victory," Sam Stein said.

"That's the game plan here, the ball game, and they'll have the resources do it. So these numbers, while probably depressing for the Trump operation right now are definitely not the end of the story, we have months and months of, you know, advertising that's going to happen here.

"And then it becomes a real turnout operation. Can Democrats produce the sort of, you know, city turnout, the suburban voters that they want to flip, can they do that, and will the Trump campaign get the exurbs, the rural voters out like they did in 2016? I don't know. I think job approval's bad. I don't think it's determinative. I think what we'll end up seeing is just a real slog. And, yeah, if it's Joe Biden we're going to have, like, eight months of him and Trump challenging each other to an IQ test and push-up contest and it's going to be really depressing."

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