November 2, 2021

It's always hard to predict a tight race, but count me cautiously optimistic that Terry McAuliffe is going to win. The media is entirely too invested in making this a neck and neck horse race; I don't know about that. Virginia is a tricky state. There are a lot of conservative areas (Virginia Beach, Norfolk, etc.) but they don't have the sheer population density of northern Virginia, where a lot of federal workers reside.

Most of the polls I've seen seem to be weighted toward Republican voters. I guess we'll find out.

I think Democrats have done a pretty good job explaining to voters it's not enough to get rid of Trump, we have to get rid of Trumpism. I don't know if the delay in implementing Biden's agenda will deter Black voters, but I don't believe suburban women have simply forgotten the danger that Republicans pose, particularly when it comes to abortion. We have to control state offices to protect our elections.

Via the Washington Post:

Both campaigns have shattered fundraising records, drawing money through issues of national import — including the coronavirus pandemic and the abortion law in Texas. Those issues underscore the differences between McAuliffe, who supports some mask and vaccine mandates and favors abortion rights, and Youngkin, a former private equity executive, who is against virus-related mandates and opposes abortion.

The CRT stuff? Who knows. The people with a racist bent lean Republican, but it depends on how many independents and Democrats Fox News can scare with this stuff.

Remember, even though polls showed California Gov. Gavin Newsome with a clear lead in the runup to September's recall election, the media drumbeat was much different. They thrive on horse race narratives, after all.

I think if Republicans were that confident, you wouldn't see Newt Gingrich saying this the night before:

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