First of all, everything's still up in the air. We still don't know for sure who has control of the House and Senate.
But thanks to a massive turnout by the youngs (the kids are alright!), it's razor close, and we have as good a shot as they do, despite the insane gerrymandering and redistricting done by Republican state legislatures. So I await those final results with some degree of optimism. If we hold Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona, we're good. Via the New York Times:
Republicans will have to claw their way to a majority, seat by seat. The Needle suggests Republicans are likelier than not to win the House, but it is no certainty. As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, there was only enough information to have them projected to win 197 seats — 21 short of the 218 needed for a majority.
They’re nowhere close to being called the winner in many of these races — in many of these states, late mail ballots have the potential to help Democrats. It will take days to count these ballots.
AS WE TOLD YOU, the pollsters were wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong!
Oh, and say good morning to Sen. elect John Fetterman (above)! Know that Trump is sitting in a corner somewhere, sucking his thumb between blaming people for this public repudiation. Enjoy the taste of their Republican tears:
HOWEVER: The very horrible, much-disliked J.D. Vance won the Senate seat in Ohio against Tim Ryan. We can at least be happy that he is not walking into a large GOP majority -- which should help make his life miserable.
In Arizona, while votes are still being counted, it does look like Katie Hobbs beat the toxic Trump knob polisher Kari Lake.
In Florida, Ron DeSantis won. (The majestic Val Demings lost. We have thoughts for later.)
Ron John holds on, God help us:
Good news, bad news: Lauren Boebert lost. Marge Greene won.
Looks like Georgia's going to a runoff again. I like our chances. Then there's Wisconsin:
Wisconsin is the only one that could be resolved by early this morning. The Republican Ron Johnson led by just over one percentage point at 7 a.m. Eastern, with 94 percent of the vote counted. A handful of counties might still have a modest number of absentee ballots to report, which could let the Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes close some of the gap. Either way, the number of absentee ballots should be ascertained fairly quickly. They ought to be counted fairly quickly as well.
Nevada:
Of the two, Nevada is the clearer case. Still, the race is too close to call. The Republican Adam Laxalt leads the Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by 2.7 percentage points at this hour, but most of the remaining vote is expected to be Democratic-leaning mail ballots and provisional ballots, including from same-day registrants.
Arizona:
The situation in Arizona is even less clear, but here there is at least a chance of a quick resolution. The Democrat Mark Kelly leads by six percentage points, 52 percent to 46 percent, with most of the Election Day and early votes counted. Most of the remaining vote is the mail ballots that were returned to the state near the election, including on Election Day, along with provisional ballots.
These days, mail and provisional ballots are typically good for Democrats. But this is not a normal case. A large majority of voters cast ballots by mail in Arizona, so the mail ballots are not nearly as favorable toward Democrats. Instead, a strange pattern has emerged in recent years: Democrats mail in their ballots well ahead of the election, leaving Republicans to turn in their ballots near the election or simply prefer to vote in person. In 2020, Donald J. Trump won the ballots counted after Election Day by a wide margin here, turning a four-point lead for Mr. Biden at this hour in 2020 into a race won by less than a point.
The culinary workers union (which is a very large union in Las Vegas) had a last minute push to get their members to send in their ballots. So we can be hopeful here, as well.
In New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan won reelection despite a Trump endorsed candidate:
