Three weeks ago, Republican super PACs began dumping tens of millions into Texas’ Senate contest, unleashing an ad blitz they hoped would hurt Democratic nominee James Talarico and boost Republican Ken Paxton.
Yet Fox News dropped a poll Thursday evening that showed the money is not working, with Paxton trailing Talarico 49% to 51% among likely voters.
Oddly, the poll found Talarico’s lead grows among the universe of all registered voters, with 53% choosing Talarico and 46% choosing Paxton. That 7-point spread among the electorate as a whole is even larger than Fox News’ pollsters found in July, before President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune began pouring money into the state.
After blanketing the airwaves with bigoted, false, and absurd ads that sought to paint Talarico as a dangerous radical who would force sex changes on kids, voters actually view Talarico more favorably now than they did in July. The poll found 53% of registered voters had a favorable view of Talarico—34% of whom has a strongly favorable opinion of the Democrat. In July, 49% of voters viewed Talarico favorably, 25% of whom did so strongly.
Paxton, meanwhile, is extremely underwater, with 59% of registered voters viewing Paxton unfavorably, 43% of whom view him strongly unfavorably. That’s even worse than his July numbers, when 51% viewed him unfavorably.
Paxton’s struggles are multifaceted.
Trump’s approval rating in Texas is low, with voters angry at his handling of the economy and the war in Iran.
What’s more, Paxton’s long history of abhorrent behavior—including corruption, sweetheart deals for pedophiles, and adultery—has even Republican voters repulsed by his candidacy. Fox’s poll shows Talarico winning a sizable chunk of those Republican voters who dislike Paxton, accounting for Talarico’s lead in this otherwise red state.
“Non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to back Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% to 4%),” Fox News wrote of its findings. “The crossover echoes lingering divisions from the competitive GOP primary and runoff: 20% of likely voters who backed Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary back Talarico.”
While he’s spending big to help push Paxton over the finish line, Trump’s personal behavior is decidedly not helping Paxton, either.
Trump has criticized Paxton’s looks and abilities as a campaigner, and on Thursday night had more choice words for the Republican he endorsed over GOP Sen. John Cornyn in the primary.
“He can be a pain in the ass sometimes, I’ll be honest,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Texas. “Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is. I didn’t even know if he was here! I don’t care.”
Trump campaigns for Ken Paxton in Texas: "He can be a pain in the ass sometimes, I'll be honest. Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is. I didn't even know if he was here! I don't care." pic.twitter.com/AR9mNdSGEr
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 1, 2026
Indeed, Trump may be mad at Paxton right now, after audio leaked of Paxton crapping on Trump’s midterm convention.
Ultimately, it’s not just the Fox News polling that should have Republicans terrified of their prospects in this must-win Senate race.District level polling in U.S. House contests shows Paxton struggling even in heavily Republican areas.
During the primary, Cornyn warned Republican voters that nominating Paxton would be a devastating move, as Paxton is an odiously corrupt and amoral man that could lose the Lone Star State for the GOP.
Turns out, Cornyn was right. And he’s having fun telling Republicans that he told them so.
Posted with permission from Daily Kos
