Florida Primary Preview

State: Florida

Type of election: Primary

How it works: Florida is a closed primary. Only Republicans will be voting in the primary today and the deadline for registration changes was 30 days prior to the election.

Official election results: Florida Division of Elections

Republican candidates: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (all others have dropped out or are polling at less than 1 percent)

Democratic candidates: Barack Obama

Previous performance: In 2008, Romney finished second in the Republican primary to John McCain, receiving 31 percent of the vote. Paul finished fifth with 3.2 percent. Obama finished second to Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary with 33 percent.

Newspapers: Florida Today, Miami Herald, Tallahassee Democrat, Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Tribune, full list

Television stations: Full list

Progressive blogs: Bark Bark Woof Woof, Beach Peanuts, Eye on Miami, FLA Politics, Florida Progressive Coalition, Pensito Review, Progress Florida, The Reid Report, SaintPetersBlog, The Spencerian

Progressives on Twitter: Full list

Media blogs: The Buzz, The Fine Print, Fresh Squeezed Politics, Naked Politics, Post on Politics

Latest polling: Most recent from each polling organization:

  • PPP: Romney 36 percent, Gingrich 29, Santorum 17, Paul 12
  • ARG: Romney 43, Gingrich 31, Santorum 13, Paul 9
  • Ipsos: Romney 43, Gingrich 28, Santorum 12, Paul 5
  • Insider Advantage: Romney 36, Gingrich 31, Santorum 12, Paul 12
  • We Ask America: Romney 44, Gingrich 25, Santorum 10, Paul 10
  • Suffolk: Romney 47, Gingrich 27, Santorum 12, Paul 9
  • Survey USA: Romney 41, Gingrich 26, Santorum 12, Paul 12
  • Quinnipiac: Romney 43, Gingrich 29, Santorum 11, Paul 11
  • Rasmussen: Romney 44, Gingrich 28, Santorum 12, Paul 10

    Nate Silver gives Romney a 98 percent chance of winning, followed by Gingrich at 2 percent. All other candidates are at 0 percent chance to win according to Silver.

    Bottom line: At one point, Florida looked primed to give Gingrich a shot to get back into the race, but times change quickly. It's hard to see how Romney doesn't win at this point and it's hard to see how a victory in Florida doesn't all but seal the nomination for him.

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