June 18, 2008

Great news coming out of my alma mata Quinnipiac today as a new poll shows Obama leading McCain for the first time in the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Of course polls at this point mean relatively little, but the overall trend is very encouraging, as we see Democrats starting to rally around Barack and Independents moving away from McCain.


With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the apparent Democratic presidential contender, leads Arizona Sen. John McCain, expected to be the Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:

* Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
* Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.

Again, 4+ months out, the usual caveats still apply, but the overall trends and CW-busting observations are wonderful to see, especially in Florida, which for a while seemed out of reach for Obama. As fivethirtyeight's Nate Silver puts it:

If Florida is in play, then John McCain's defense is completely broken; it was the one traditional swing state that always had looked off-limits to Obama. More frustratingly for McCain, he had spent the better part of three days in Florida earlier this month, hoping to raise doubts about Obama among Jewish voters. Although Quinnipiac does not break out the Jewish vote, Obama holds a 61-31 lead in Southeast Florida, where most of the state's Jewish population is concentrated.

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