November 3, 2014

This sure is some good news, because I'd like to think that Iowa voters aren't crazy enough to put Joni Ernst in the U.S. Senate. We won't know until tomorrow night, of course, but it's nice to know the voters aren't as much in her favor as we were led to believe. (And it's always a bonus when Joe Scarborough is wrong again!) Via Mediate:

This weekend’s Des Moines Register poll showing Iowa GOP senatorial candidate Joni Ernst up by seven points — a considerably higher lead than the +1 or +2 trend of the previous couple days — was taken by much of the chattering class as a sign that Ernst was pulling away from her opponent Bruce Braley in the final days of the campaign. This morning Fox & Friends cited the poll as evidence that we should all but stick a fork in Braley.But not only did Meet the Press host Chuck Toddnot particularly believe that poll; he indicated Sunday morning that nobody on the ground put much faith in it either.

“Frankly neither side believes that number, for what it’s worth,” Todd said, something contradicted by Joe Scarborough Monday morning. “The Des Moines Register is the gold standard,” Scarborough insisted.Looks like Todd wins this round. A Quinnipiac poll released Monday shows the race at a dead heat, 47-47, a poll far more in keeping with the trend of the past few days. (Four days ago Braley was polling +1.) More important this poll moved Real Clear Politics’ polling average — always go with polling averages — to Ernst +1.7. RCP’s ranking of the race is still a toss-up — exactly where Todd’s gut placed it as well.

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