August 30, 2019

As Dorian grows and strengthens, the hurricane is expected to hit Monday or Tuesday as a Cat 4 storm with 130 mph winds, gusting higher.

This is pretty much the worst-case scenario: A holiday weekend, a direct hit, and a storm that will linger for days, flooding the entire state with as much as 30 inches of rain. Residents still have time to prepare, so if you live on the coast, plan to spend a lot of time waiting in line this weekend.

The Miami Herald:

Forecasters also nudged the center-line of the track another 30 miles south near Vero Beach, with landfall Monday afternoon. But the computer models analyzing the surrounding weather systems that will steer Dorian remained scattered, and the entire state remained in the cone of uncertainty. The hurricane center also noted that the typical forecast error four days out was 155 miles. In other words, it’s still to early to pinpoint likely landfall.

The advisory acknowledged that array of sophisticated models that guide forecasters were struggling with sorting out the shifting atmospheric steering currents that will dictate Dorian’s path: “As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane.”

The latest forecast also showed Dorian could slow down dramatically as it nears land, which raises the possibility the storm could sit off the coast and dump 5 to 10 inches of rain. That drenching rain, coupled with storm surge and an already elevated tide, could spell severe flooding for wherever Dorian comes ashore.

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