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Hillary Clinton Thinks Republican Lucy Might Let Her Kick The Football

This New York Times article suggests that 2017 is going to be a lot like 2009.
Hillary Clinton Thinks Republican Lucy Might Let Her Kick The Football

This New York Times article suggests that 2017 is going to be a lot like 2009:

Should she win the presidency, Hillary Clinton would quickly try to find common ground with Republicans on an immigration overhaul and infrastructure spending, risking the wrath of liberals who would like nothing more than to twist the knife in a wounded opposition party.

... Not one to do business over golf or basketball, she would bring back the intimate style of former Presidents Ronald Reagan and Lyndon B. Johnson, negotiating over adult beverages....

Deeply confident that she would perform better as the president than as a political candidate, Mrs. Clinton wants to pursue a whole new approach at the White House to try to break through years of partisan gridlock, according to a dozen campaign advisers and allies who described her goals and outlook. From policy goals and personnel to her instinct for patiently cultivating the enemy, Mrs. Clinton thinks she would be a better dealmaker than President Obama if she finds willing partners on the other side.

Let me put it this way: She won't. There's essentially a 0% chance that she'll find "willing partners on the other side."

Her calculation is that she will be dealing with a Republican Party that is deeply fractured and demoralized after the defeat of Mr. Trump, whose leaders will be searching for ways to show they can govern and to court Hispanics if Mr. Trump loses badly with them. Mrs. Clinton also thinks a huge Democratic turnout this fall would put the Senate back in her party’s hands, while Speaker Paul D. Ryan and the Republicans would have a reduced majority in the House.

Look at the poll averages: Her lead over Trump is 4.5 points. If that holds, she's going to win by less of a margin than Barack Obama did in 2008.

Obama also had large majorities in the House and Senate. Because of gerrymandering in GOP states, a Democratic House is next to impossible in 2017, and the widespread optimism about a Democratic takeover of the Senate seems awfully premature -- the Cook Political Report finds no current Republican seat that so much as leans Democratic (though several are tossups), and Democrats could lose Harry Reid's seat in Nevada, which is also a tossup. If Democrats take back the Senate, it'll be by one or two seats, far less than their margin in 2009.


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And Republicans, up against huge Democratic majorities in 2009, still dug in their heels and blocked as much of Obama's agenda as they could manage.

Conventional wisdom says they loathed him more because he's black. I don't buy that. They've hated Hillary Clinton for a quarter of a century. Their voters despise her. And she's likely to win in the fall without being well liked by the broad electorate.

They're going to consider her weak and vulnerable. They know Democrats don't vote in midterms. So they're going to effectively shut the government down again, then blame Democrats, the party that believes in government, for the gridlock, in the hope of another off-year midterm rout.

The Times article says she'll try to pursue a potentially bipartisan agenda in her first days -- but look at what she thinks is bipartisan:

... some [Republicans] are open to her two early priorities: $275 billion in infrastructure spending, and an immigration bill with a path to citizenship like the one already passed by the Senate. Given how deeply immigration has divided the Republican Party, no other issue would probably reveal more about the ability of a President Hillary Clinton and a Republican-led House to work together.

Immigration reform? Is she kidding? I don't care if the GOP establishment wants it. Unless Trump loses by double digits -- which I guarantee you he won't -- this doesn't stand a chance. It would lead to an internecine bloodbath in the GOP in 2018, given how outraged Republican rank-and-file voters are now about Mexicans and Muslims.

She'll learn, just as Obama eventually did.

Frankly, I don't even think they intend to let her fill Supreme Court vacancies -- they're going to find some excuse (probably Email-gate or Benghazi, or maybe a less-than-overwhelming vote in November) to declare her illegitimate. If they control the Senate, they'll block her picks. If they don't, they'll declare any attempt by the Democrats to eliminate the filibuster for Supreme Court picks an assault on the Constitution.

No, Hillary -- they won't let you kick the football. You're going to have to fight for every win.

Crossposted at No More Mr. Nice Blog

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