November 3, 2018

The president got some really good economic numbers less than a week before Election Day:

The US economy added 250,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, the government announced Friday.

The unemployment rate remained at a 49-year low. Wages grew 3.1%, strong growth after years of stagnant paychecks.

And yet, as Axios notes, some economists foresee not an economic slowdown, but a recession:

Key economic indicators are flashing red.

Worker productivity is sluggish. The third quarter marked the "32nd straight quarter of yearly growth below 2%, a long and consistent stretch of anemic growth that hasn’t happened before in the post-World War II era," the WSJ reports.

Manufacturing activity has stalled for the first time in two years, possibly the result of President Trump's multi-front trade war.

Business investment is laggardly. Rather than using their $1.2 trillion tax cut on capital spending, companies are on track for the biggest-ever year of stock buybacks, possibly reaching $1 trillion....

Megan Greene, chief economist at Manulife Asset Management, expects a recession after 2021.

Mark Yusko, founder of hedge fund Morgan Creek Capital, forecasts recession next year, and puts the odds at 100% — thanks to trade tensions.

Obviously other economists disagree. But this economy will cool off sooner or later -- and it might be just after Democrats take control of the House.

Democrats won't be able to get legislation enacted. But they'll be showing us a possible post-2020 Democratic agenda, and they'll be investigating the hell out of the president.

The White House, congressional Republicans, and conservative media will blame Democrats for the downturn. How many middle-of-the-road pundits will screatch their chins and also ask whether Democrats are really to blame?

It may not matter -- voters tend to credit or blame the president for what happens to the economy. But the Trumpified GOP noise machine might be able to persuade even some swing voters that a cool-off or a recession is the Democrats' fault. Republicans will clearly try.

Crossposted at No More Mr. Nice Blog

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