"Democrats should be happy because they made it a competitive district Romney and Trump won by 12% in their 2018 suburban gains continue," pollster Larry Sabato said.
September 11, 2019

Mika Brzezinski said despite Democrat Dan McCready's loss last night in the NC-09 special election (a court-ordered election held, by the way, because of egregious Republican cheating), "his major gains in three suburban counties highlight the unpopularity of Trump's party among that demographic heading into 2020."

"Political analyst Larry Sabato tweeted that "Republicans should be happy because a win is a win and they keep the seat they've had since 1963. Democrats should be happy because they made a competitive district Romney and Trump won by 12% and their 2018 suburban gains continue."

Mika introduced Steve Kornacki to explain.

Kornacki spelled out why the Republican was ultimately able to prevail.

"One of the stories is right here in the suburbs, that circle might be too big, the densely populated suburbs of South Charlotte. About a third of this district is in Mecklenburg county. We talk about it all the time, higher-income, college-educated suburbs, a place that Trump won that portion of the district by three points in 2016. McCready tonight wins it by 13 points. So that's the kind of swing we've been seeing in metro areas, suburban areas across the country in the Trump era, away from the Republicans towards the Democrats," Kornacki said.

"If you had said at the start of the night, that's where McCready was going to end up in Mecklenburg county, you might have thought he was going to win outright. Why did Bishop survive? That is the rural vote. The eastern part of this district when you get away from Charlotte, you get away from the suburbs, these are more blue-collar rural areas. That is where it was the election day vote. Half the vote's early vote. Folks who went out in the rural parts of this district came through big for Bishop, the Republican.

"Did it have something to do with the rally Trump held on election eve in this district? That's certainly possible. It was a big rural turnout, Republican turnout for Bishop, two different story lines. Bottom line, two-point win for the Republican. It's Mecklenburg county. Zoom in here, I say it's geographically tiny. Dan McCready, it's a 12-point win for Dan McCready. This is actually better than McCready did last November in this part of the district. He won it by ten then, he wins it by 12 tonight.

"In this same slice of the district I'm showing you right here, Trump won by three in 2016. This was a densely populated area Trump was able to carry as a candidate. But as president, twice now, in a congressional election, it's gone double digits for the Democrat. If you have that happening in Mecklenburg county, if you have that happening in places like that across the country, that a big trouble sign for Trump."

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