About Last Night's Arizona Special Election
April 25, 2018

Hey guys, did you know that there was an election last night? It’s true! The terrible Sand Kingdom of Arizonastan went to the polls to find a replacement for their would-be staff-banger Rep. Trent (‘She’s having my baby’) Franks!

Here’s the key info to know:

  • Trump won the district by 21 points in 2016
  • Franks won the district in 2016 by 37 pts
  • AZ 08 has a Cook PVI index of R +13
  • The winner will be up for re-election in the 2018 Pie Fight (i.e, about 6 months)

Yes, Debbie Lesko, the Republican , won but only by 5 pts. (52.6 to 47.4 over Democrat Democrat Hiral Tipirneni), and this is a huge, down hill Republican slide no matter how you look at it.

Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie!) morning email thingie tells us…

“DATAPOINTS: DAVE WASSERMAN (@redistrict): “To win the House, Dems need an average overperformance of 4% vs. @CookPolitical PVI. Here’s their overperformance in the past 8 specials: #KS04: 12% … #MTAL: 8% … #GA06: 6% … #SC05: 7% … #UT03: 6% … #ALSEN: 15% … #PA18: 11% … #AZ08: 11%.”

“… ALSO from Wasserman: “There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08. It’s time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November.”

NYTimes leads with “Republicans Lost Support in Every Special Election Since Trump Became President”

It’s an eye-opener for Wingnuttia. It’s not just that they have lost most of the special elections, its that they’ve lost by an average of 20pts.

Crossposted from Mock Paper Scissors

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