Hey guys, did you know that there was an election last night? It’s true! The terrible Sand Kingdom of Arizonastan went to the polls to find a replacement for their would-be staff-banger Rep. Trent (‘She’s having my baby’) Franks!
Here’s the key info to know:
- Trump won the district by 21 points in 2016
- Franks won the district in 2016 by 37 pts
- AZ 08 has a Cook PVI index of R +13
- The winner will be up for re-election in the 2018 Pie Fight (i.e, about 6 months)
Yes, Debbie Lesko, the Republican , won but only by 5 pts. (52.6 to 47.4 over Democrat Democrat Hiral Tipirneni), and this is a huge, down hill Republican slide no matter how you look at it.
Tiger Beat on the Potomac (thanks Charlie!) morning email thingie tells us…
“DATAPOINTS: DAVE WASSERMAN (@redistrict): “To win the House, Dems need an average overperformance of 4% vs. @CookPolitical PVI. Here’s their overperformance in the past 8 specials: #KS04: 12% … #MTAL: 8% … #GA06: 6% … #SC05: 7% … #UT03: 6% … #ALSEN: 15% … #PA18: 11% … #AZ08: 11%.”
“… ALSO from Wasserman: “There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08. It’s time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November.”
It’s an eye-opener for Wingnuttia. It’s not just that they have lost most of the special elections, its that they’ve lost by an average of 20pts.
Crossposted from Mock Paper Scissors