September 24, 2012

Some fairly astute analysis from the former ABC News anchor, of the kind he wasn't permitted to make when he was involved in network news, when the be-all and end-all was the promotion of a horserace election, no matter what the polling indicated.

On September 20, 2012, Charles Gibson, former "ABC World News" anchor, delivered the lecture, "The (Im)Balance of Power in Washington: How Things Went Off the Rails and How They Can Be Fixed," at Quinnipiac University.

The event was sponsored by Quinnipiac University's School of Communications.

Gibson's full remarks continue below the fold.

Who do I think is going to win the White House? There are 46 days until we vote. Predictions are perilous and my track record is not particularly good in making predictions.

But folks, Barack Obama is going to win.

And I don't say that-- (Applause.) I don't say that just because Mitt Romney is running an inept campaign, which he is.

He made a very maladroit statement on the Middle East; his 47% on the dole, et cetera.

You now hear backstage rumblings from prominent Republicans that have basically written him off.

But I say it because Barack Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008. So he can lose--he only needs... That's 95 more than he needs for election.

He can lose states like Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, all of which he won four years ago, and still be elected comfortably.

Every electoral map that I have seen puts 237 electoral votes pretty solidly in the Obama column this year. That means he only needs to pick up 33 more.

There are nine states that are considered toss-ups. They are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Obama now leads in the polls, including the Quinnipac polls, in eight of those states and his lead is significant in some of them.

In six of the nine, the economy has rebounded significantly and unemployment is well below the national average. In Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia it's under 6%

Most people focus on the national polls to try to measure the national vote but other polls I think are far more revealing.

More people blame Bush--54%--this is an ABC poll. More people blame Bush, 54% than Obama, 32% for the bad economy.

Which candidate is more likeable and friendly? Obama--a 34 percent advantage.

Who will do more to help the middle class? Obama--a 15 percentage point lead.

And who would you like to have dinner with? Which I think is always a key poll. Obama--a 19 point lead.

And while I'm a skeptic about TV ratings and I don't like them much, five and a half million more people watched Obama's acceptance speech than watched Mitt Romney's.

And then there's the issues. Funny, we talk about issues.

The Republican party has done Romney no favors by forcing him so far to the right that he may not be able to scramble back by November 6.

Polls show Obama with a solid lead among women. Is Romney's position on reproductive rights really what he had to claim in the primaries?

Polls show Obama with a solid lead among Hispanics. Is Romney truly anti
-immigration? Does he really oppose the Dream Act?

And seniors, many who now oppose Obamacare, but no one wants politicians meddling with their Medicare.

To me that all adds up to an Obama win.

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