From Today's New York Times:

Bush Was Warned

The same intelligence unit that produced a gloomy report in July about the prospect of growing instability in Iraq warned the Bush administration about the potential costly consequences of an American-led invasion two months before the war began, government officials said Monday.


The assessments predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict.

One of the reports also warned of a possible insurgency against the new Iraqi government or American-led forces, saying that rogue elements from Saddam Hussein’s government could work with existing terrorist groups or act independently to wage guerrilla warfare, the officials said. The assessments also said a war would increase sympathy across the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, at least in the short run.


Secretary of State Colin L. Powell acknowledged that “we have seen an increase in anti-Americanism in the Muslim world'’ since the war began. Mr. Powell also said the insurgency in Iraq was “getting worse.'’

Outside the Bush machine/neocon/warblogger coccoon, no one who can find Iraq on a map doubts that things are going badly there.

Yet more evidence Bush and his advisors were driven primarily by wishful thinking in shutting out the evidence and refusing to countenance the tough planning and commitment of resources needed to prevent post-war Iraq from turning into a terrorist-riven Lebanon.

What should John Kerry say about it? He should say more or less what he’s been saying:

1. Optimism is precious. Wishful thinking is dangerous. The difference is paying attention to reality.
2. The troops need a Commander-in Chief who knows the difference between optimism and wishful thinking.
3. Knowing what you believe isn’t helpful if what you believe isn’t true.
4. Staying the course doesn’t help if you’re on the wrong course.
5. We need a plan to win the peace in Iraq. Saying we’re winning isn’t the same as planning to win

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