Hey, GOP: Wouldn't want to be you!
Dems came out in droves in yesterday's primaries and special elections, and even in the seat they seem to have lost, it's a razor-thin margin. And the Right To Work law in Missouri went down, 2-1. Yay!
Things are looking good for November, although we still don't have totals in a lot of races. (It's 4 o'clock in the damn morning as I write this, so forgive me if it's not as organized as I'd like.)
I’ve worked in Ohio presidential and senate races for Republicans and the idea of #oh12 being a close race is sort of like hearing gravity is a regional phenomena. It’s not how the world is suppose to work. https://t.co/waJPaiJb1S
— stuart stevens (@stuartpstevens) August 8, 2018
Women broke records tonight — after tonight’s results, most women running as major party nominees for governor and U.S. House EVER. And Michigan Democrats have an all-female ticket running statewide https://t.co/p0qKLT8guG w/ @Phil_Lewis_
— Amanda Terkel (@aterkel) August 8, 2018
Yes, she is. Her term would start during the lame duck session this year. No Republican is seeking the seat in November. https://t.co/gRGMOKRqxn
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) August 8, 2018
Not-crazy scenario:
-- Provisional ballots lower Balderson's margin to a tick below 0.5%
-- Which (if I'm reading the law right) will trigger an automatic recount in Ohio
-- But Balderson wins the recount because recounts rarely reverse results unless it's really *really* close.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 8, 2018
So far tonight, in Dem House primaries featuring at least one man, one woman & no incumbent on ballot, a woman has won 9/11 times (82%). On GOP side, 1/5 (20%).
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018
And Wesley Bell has knocked off a 20+ year incumbent (!) to become the new St. Louis County prosecutor. Huge upset, major win for the criminal just reform movement, and for the activists who organized after the murder of Mike Brown. https://t.co/BwCYpxDkCc https://t.co/5RYNHeWvru
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) August 8, 2018
Check out the trend in #MO02, a suburban St. Louis seat designed for Rep. Ann Wagner.
Total D vote in 2014: 54,557
Total R vote in 2014: 55,322
D vote in 2018: 96,972
R vote in 2018: 74,933— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) August 8, 2018
#BREAKING Projection: Barring a recount/provisional vote surprise, Balderson (R) wins the #OH12 special election. The district will see a 13 pt swing toward Dems over the partisan lean of the seat; that swing is 15 points nationwide, and STILL FORECASTS a blue wave in November. https://t.co/q2vspaHCpi
— G. Elliott Morris📈🤷♂️ (@gelliottmorris) August 8, 2018
Balderson obviously in very good shape here, but NBC is not yet calling him the winner because with 3,435 provisionals to be counted it’s possible Balderson’s margin will dip under 0.5% and trigger a mandatory recount
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) August 8, 2018
#OH12 take: Obviously it is good for Democrats that they’re down 1 point in a House district that went 11 points for Trump in 2016, leans 14 points to the right of the nation, and gave its former Republican congressman a nearly 40 point margin last cycle.
— G. Elliott Morris📈🤷♂️ (@gelliottmorris) August 8, 2018
Still awake, #KS03?! We’re at the #JoCo Elections Office monitoring the #vote count as it happens. Stay tuned...#TeamSharice
— Sharice Davids (@sharicedavids) August 8, 2018
Hearing that Sharice Davids may win #KS03 after all -- Welder needed a much bigger margin out of KCK, Davids probably won Johnson (where most of the vote is).
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) August 8, 2018
Meanwhile, in the KS-3 Dem primary Brent Welder (a former Bernie staffer) has seen his lead decline with more Johnson reporting. Emily's List endorsed Sharice Davids, who has been climbing.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 8, 2018
If anything, tonight's #OH12 result reinforces our view that Dems are substantial favorites to retake the House in November.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018
If the emerging CW that turnout in top-2 primaries is a pretty good predictor of general election results, a serious bloodbath is on the horizon for Washington State Republicans, and DCCC and other national donors should upgrade WA-3 and WA-5 as serious pickup opportunities. https://t.co/kMNBg0snWE
— David Watkins (@djw172) August 8, 2018
In Kansas, Another Close Race, as Kobach and Colyer Remain Deadlocked pic.twitter.com/gcfomhc1Bz
— Newsxxx (@XNewsWorld) August 8, 2018
In Kansas, Another Close Race, as Kobach and Colyer Remain Deadlocked - https://t.co/4u8YUPE82u #LatestComments
— Latest Commentary (@LatestComments) August 8, 2018
