Well, they're hedging. Because who's going to keep watching cable TV if you admit things probably won't get any better for Trump?
Joe Scarborough was discussing the latest poll numbers with Jim Messina.
"You know, this ABC poll, again, the latest poll. Interesting to see if other polls follow it," Scarborough said.
"But you have trend lines going the way the Harris campaign would obviously want it to be. Same with Siena, trend lines where late breakers were breaking dramatically toward her. I think the number I keep going back to, and it's a number that I have been looking at for three years now, with Donald Trump who is going to run, and the number is 47. Donald Trump is at 47%. Donald Trump is at 48%.
"There was a time when people were cheering the 20% that Bobby Kennedy was going to take off the board to make 47% enough. That's not happening now. I guess if Harris does win, and she has a four point lead, like 51 to 47, everybody is going to go, you know, why, of course, you idiots. He was never getting over 47%. Maybe we'll be saying that, but I still think that's the question. For Donald Trump to win, this isn't even 40 years ago, he needs 48%, 49% most likely in national polls. For a lot of reasons, demographic shifts we won't waste our viewers' time with. That's where I'm stuck. He has a hard ceiling. How does he win with 47% of the vote nationally, even as you project that toward electoral college votes?"
"Joe, he doesn't. You're exactly right. The weird thing is, someone should call his campaign and explain your math to them. They have been stuck at 47, 47.5 for a year. Yet, Joe, what is their closing argument? In a race they desperately need another point, point and a half, maybe two points, the close is to ostracize voters, end with anger, end with racism, end with an argument that only their base could appreciate, and not even all their base," Messina said.
"Campaigns, you and I talked about this a lot, are contrasts. You can't end this campaign better if you're the Harris campaign. What you want is very clear. Optimism, hope, and the future over the anger of the past. Donald Trump is giving you that repeatedly. You know, don't believe you and I. Look at the NBC poll. By ten points, late breaking voters are moving to her. You can tell why, because she has a message to them.
"Is it close? Of course it is. Is it always going to be close? Of course it is. But what you need to do at the end is move your voters to vote and to get the persuadables to move at the end. Right now, it looks like from early vote numbers and from polls, she's doing that, Joe."
"I don't understand," Scarborough mused.
"Again, I've never understood the anger, the hatred, the whole idea. I guess the problem is the party is motivated by a central theme. That is, own the libs."
