It's often said that the Selzer poll is the gold standard for polling in Iowa, the absolute single poll that everyone looks at. In fact, Ann Selzer may be the best pollster in America, period. Highly regarded for her integrity, she will release polls at odds with other pollsters, and almost always turns out to be correct. She does not follow the herd like so many other, lesser pollsters. If that's what the data says, she will release it.
So, last night when she released her long-awaited final poll for Iowa the news came down like an earthquake hitting the internet. Kamala Harris leading in Iowa? How can that be? Iowa has gone hard right in recent years, with all Republicans in Congress, and a statehouse with large Republican majorities. And a Republican Governor. But then they did something stupid. Really stupid. They instituted a 6-week abortion ban this summer, and that seems to be the driving force for these numbers. At least that's the most straightforward, simplistic explanation.
And if Ann Selzer is right, we may soon see the most shocking result in modern presidential history.
Source: Des Moines Register
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Has she been accurate in the past?
Dobbs is a BFD in Iowa, as it should be everywhere. The women in Iowa get it.
And the cold hard truth here.
