A new poll in one of the nation’s top bellwether areas shows Trump’s popularity waning and Democrats staking out a lead in local elections — a warning sign for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. Via Politico:
Fifty-three percent of likely voters in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, view Trump unfavorably, compared to 42 percent who see him favorably, according to the survey by the Democratic firm Upswing Research & Strategy that was shared first with POLITICO.
Bucks County, a suburb of Philadelphia, is a perennial battleground targeted by candidates for president and statewide office. It was Bucks County where Trump made his famous appearance at a McDonald’s and manned a fry station in the 2024 election. Trump won it by less than 1 percentage point last year after former President Joe Biden narrowly carried it in 2020.
[...]“It’s clear that there is some backlash against Trump and MAGA Republicans generally,” said Ethan Smith, a founding partner at Upswing Research & Strategy. “The survey also shows that we’re probably entering a period of Democratic enthusiasm. We can tell just based on response rates that Democrats are really eager to participate in the election.”
[...] Upswing Research & Strategy conducted the poll on behalf of the Democratic PAC Bucks United, the coordinated campaign for the county party and local candidates for district attorney, sheriff and other row offices.
Bucks is a classic (and infuriating) swing county. I lived and worked there for a few years, but I never got a good handle on the local politics. But it's been slowly trending blue over the years, and this poll is good news.
