October 4, 2018

Above: Politico's Jake Sherman on this one poll showing that all of a sudden Republican voters think this election is as important as Democrats already think it is. And that makes this a horserace! Yay, ratings!

MSNBC's Craig Melvin begged Politico's Jake Sherman to throw those wanting this to be real a bone. Aaaand...no.

"No, they can't run on it and win on it. I don't think anybody thinks that. There is some anecdotal evidence that there is a boost in enthusiasm all over the right and in rightward leaning districts. The NRCC, the House Republican Campaign Committee reported and we wrote in Playbook, reported a massive increase in donations to a solicitation that they sent out. There is evidence that on the Right there is some energy about this. I want to kind of dissect what the president has said here. The president has been in rightward leaning districts, not middle of the road districts. Districts that are on the right that Republicans should easily hold, deep red districts. It's not surprising that in those districts people are going to be revved up and want Kavanaugh confirmed. The question is in the suburbs, in the districts Hillary Clinton won, 20 something of which are held by Republicans, or the left and undecided voters and independents, logic would tell us that yes, it probably is galvanizing to educated women, which is a segment of the population that Republicans have had trouble with this cycle, that they might be put off by some of this. You can't say that as a monolithic thought but you can say that would be what logic would dictate and what Republicans are telling us. Behind the scenes, everybody I talk to thinks this is a big issue for Republicans. There's a whole crop of Republicans who think that Kavanaugh's withdrawal and a Supreme Court seat in the balance in this election would have been an even bigger benefit for Republicans. So there is no monolithic thought, and you can't say anything with confidence. It's just a bunch of guesswork at this point."

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