With public opinion sour on President Donald Trump, this year’s midterm environment is swinging further toward Democrats, with the Cook Political Report on Thursday saying that Democrats are now the favorite to win control of the House.
The political handicapping outlet moved 18 races in Democrats' direction, including two GOP-held seats that are now toss-ups, with Cook Political Report Senior Editor Dave Wasserman calling Democrats "modest favorites" for control.
"All the major indicators—the president's unpopularity, special election results and the generic congressional ballot—point to a favorable environment for Democrats," Cook Political Report analyst Erin Covey wrote in an analysis piece.
As it stands, 211 seats are either solidly, likely, or leaning toward Democrats, compared with 206 for the GOP. Another 18 seats are rated as toss-ups, 14 of which are held by Republicans.
In order to keep control of the House, Republicans need to win 12 of those toss-up contests. And given that Trump's approval rating is in the toilet at just 40%, the generic congressional ballot favors Democrats, and both special election and off-year contests have swung hard toward Democrats, it's difficult to see how the GOP pulls that feat off if political conditions in November are what they are today.
“Trump's approval rating is underwater like the New Jersey Jets,” CNN data analyst Harry Enten joked, referencing a notoriously bad NFL team. “He's underwater in every poll with no change from last month, which shouldn't be surprising because he's been underwater for 310 days. He's polling well on no key issues currently. He's underwater on all of them.”
In fact, Wasserman's assessment of Democrats being "modest favorites" appears conservative given the data.
While November is a lifetime away in politics, nothing Trump or his party is doing right now will change the environment in Republicans' favor.
Trump's immigration enforcement goons violently beating and even killing people in the street is, unsurprisingly, not popular.
Virtually no one—not even a majority of members of his own party—is onboard with Trump's sick imperialistic quest to take Greenland by force, run Venezuela, or strike Iran.
As voters beg Trump to address affordability, he is instead calling it a "hoax" and lying about grocery prices going down. And his agriculture secretary is going out and saying that things aren't so bad because a meal of one measly piece of chicken, a singular floret of broccoli, and one corn tortilla costs only $3.
What a winning message!
Republished with permission from Daily Kos.
