September 14, 2014
Prof. Sam Wang joins Michael Smerconish on CNN to talk about the odds of Senate control in November. For much of the past year the media have pushed for a narrative of Republican takeover, most often citing Nate Silver's bearish outlook. Silver's fundamentals (red state electorates, non-presidential year, etc) essentially putting his thumb on the scale for takeover. Others like Wang have said that's not what the data is showing. Smerconish's set up is false too, as this has never been "Dewey-Truman". All the experts aren't predicting a Republican takeover, and never were. Others (, Daily Kos, Washington Post also show Democrats barely holding the Senate, 58%, 51%, 50% respectively). 538 and New York Times, who both employ 'fundamentals' are now at 58% and 52% for Republican control. Wang's/PEC is higher, but it's important to realize their most likely result is a 50-50 senate split, with Democrats barely maintaining control.
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