June 5, 2012

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UPDATE: NBC News has called the race for Scott Walker, with 22% of the vote in.

UPDATE #2: NBC News has called the race for Lt. Governor to the incumbent, Rebecca Kleefisch. Additionally, Speaker Scott Fitzgerald has also been projected to survive his recall.

If you click on the link, the Guardian will update their page every minute with results from Wisconsin recall election:

9.16pm: Let's dive into the exit poll data from Wisconsin:

• Union households made up about a third of the electorate, and about two-thirds of them backed Tom Barrett, about the same level of support he received among the group in 2010

• Barrett improved on his 2010 performance among African Americans, those with incomes below $50,000 and independents. Barrett won 95% of the African American vote, up from 87% in 2010

• Both Walker and Barrett retained more than 9 in 10 of those who backed them in 2010. Walker marginally won independent voters by 50%-49%

• About one in 10 voters said they did not vote in 2010 – and they broke heavily for Barrett

• About 9 in 10 in early exit polling said they decided who to vote for before May. Those who did make up their minds in the final month of the campaign supported Barrett by nearly 30 points

9.08 pm: More from the exit poll – and it may be tight in the recall race, but Wisconsin voters still appear to be backing Barack Obama come November.

The exit poll has Obama getting 54% to Mitt Romney's 42% – and that's a poll that should be more accurate than most state polls at this point, given the circumstances. That must be a disappointment for Republicans.

9.06 pm: Gary Younge sees some last minute stragglers dashing in at the last moment to vote in Milwaukee:

At 7.58 pm outside the Keenan health centre, recall supporters chivvied up the stragglers: "Come on blood seriously get in there."

"You're the one who came to my door," said the young man, struggling to run as his trousers sagged halfway down his legs. "I'm here like I said."

A minute later the polls closed to applause.

Gary adds that everywhere he's been has had long lines but no problems.

9.04 pm: The first exit poll from Wisconsin – according to CNN – shows a 50/50 split between Scott Walker and Tom Barrett.

The New York Times reports an increase in union households voting, which could be good news for Democrats:

Preliminary exit poll results indicate an uptick in turnout among voters from union households - something Democrats were hoping for in their effort to oust Gov. Scott Walker on Tuesday.

But whether that holds as voters continue to head to the polls, and whether it is enough to give Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee the edge, are open questions at this point.

About a third of voters in preliminary exit poll results say they or someone in their household belong to a labor union. That is an increase from 2010 and 2008, when 26 percent of voters in each of those elections were from a union household.

High union turnout is crucial for the Democrats. In 2010, 63 percent of voters in union households supported Mr. Barrett, compared with 37 percent for Mr. Walker.

UPDATE: (Nicole) MSNBC just called it for Scott Walker.

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