December 26, 2019

Harry Enten appeared on New Day to talk about the growing gender gap in 2020 presidential polling.

In 2016, he points out, women voted for Hillary Clinton by 14 percentage points. (Editor's note: More accurately, this reflects the 93% of black women who voted for Clinton. White women? Not so much. They've woken up since then.) That showed a gender gap of 25 percentage points.

"What does 2020 look like?" Alysin Camerota asked.

"So take a look here," Enten said. "I averaged our last two CNN polls, October and December. Take a look at this. I'm specifically looking at Biden and Trump to simplify things a bit. Take a look here. Women in average of our polls voting Democratic by 24 percentage points, voting for Joe Biden. Republicans voting for Trump by ten percentage points. That's a gender gap of 34 points. That is huge. I have never ever seen that before in any poll, heading into a presidential election."

"That's unbelievable."

"That's a canyon. I think the real question is why is this gap widening," Enten said.

"This is 2016 versus 2020, and what we see is women in 2016. Take a look at the Biden versus Trump polling. Men pretty much voting the same. 10 in 2020, 11 in 2016 both for the GOP. But women, that's where the gap is. Look at this. 24 point lead in our polling among women versus just a 14-point victory for Hillary Clinton back in 2016."

"So women either love Joe Biden or they have a problem voting for Donald Trump," Camerota said.

"I think the answer here is Trump. And let me just point out: if this holds with women, it would be the biggest Democratic victory among women just absolutely since 1964, even in that blowout election."

The numbers do fluctuate with education, Camerota noted.

"We see that Joe Biden is winning in polling with white women with a college degree. Men with a college degree, slightly voting for Trump by a percentage point. Here this is the big huge group for Biden, white women with a college degree," Enten said.

"But even the men, I'm shocked that's one point. That's very tight. That's fascinating. all right."

"Yeah. Part of that may be -- now, here we go. We were talking about white women without a college degree when we talked on Tuesday. So I brought to you the 2016 and 2020 vote. Back in 2016 there was a 27-point gender gap. Republican white women without a college degree voted Republican by 23 points, white men without a college degree voted for them by 50 points-- take a look at the 2020 numbers. The ender gap has exploded. 39 points. White men without a college degree, by 50 points for Donald Trump. 43 point lead for Donald Trump."

"This is all despite a red hot economy. That's actually one of the things that makes it so important," John Avlon said.(Not really. The numbers represent Wall Street, not Main Street. Most people don't own stock. You'd think after 2008, they'd learn.)

"I did a recent voter panel of white women without a college degree. We saw some erosion. People that were struggling with the previous vote," Camerota said.

"It's a 19-point going towards the Democratic party."

Enten said the gap holds in the swing state. "Wisconsin, a key swing state, 32-point gender gap here. Democratic. women are voting Democratic by 17 points. So we see it in the swing states as well."

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