July 24, 2020

Pretty stunning polling out this morning, showing Trump behind almost everywhere. The Morning Joe crew devoted a long segment to chewing over the numbers.

"Let's start with polling, Quinnipiac polling out of the state of Florida shows President Trump trailing by 13 points in Florida. Former vice president Joe Biden leads President Trump 51% to 38% among Florida voters," Mika Brzezinski said.

"Biden also leads Trump in three Fox News state polls, Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 11 points, 50 to 39. In Michigan by nine points, 49 to 40%. And in Minnesota by 13 points, 51 to 38%. And in a new Quinnipiac University poll out of Texas, Biden leading Trump by a single point, 45% to 44. That's statistically tied, falling within the poll's three point margin of error. But wow."

"When we were in law school, professors would throw at my classmates and I questions, cases that we wanted nothing to do with, and yet it was our job to figure out how to defend a person we didn't want to defend or make an argument that we wouldn't make most of the time because it wouldn't pass the straight face test, as Professor Pearson said," Scarborough said.

"I'm looking at the poll numbers, Florida down by 13 in the Quinnipiac poll, we've said it's more like 8 or 9. Pennsylvania, plus 11. Michigan, plus 9. Minnesota plus 13 for now. I'm not shocked by it. Texas is even. But here's a campaign that several months ago they were saying they were going to win Minnesota, win New Mexico, they were going to expand their map. Now those states are gone. Now they're fighting in Texas, Arizona, and Georgia, and you've got these swing states that are looking more and more out of reach.

"Early voting begins soon enough, very soon. we can no longer say this election is a long way off, it's not as far as early voting goes. So if you're hired to go in and give a message to this White House and say, guys and gals, early voting begins in a month, month and a half, this is what you have to do over the next 45 days to have any chance of keeping it close. What do you tell the White House?" he asked Donnie Deutsch.

"When you start with the president's own words -- all you have to do is use the president's words in a life or death situation. You can fail on a trade deal or a conversation with Russia. You can't fail when it comes to saving people's lives or causing people to die. That's what he did," the ad man said.

"I thought to myself many, many times: What would I do? Would i tell him to be the law and order president? Even with all he's doing, the Washington Post's latest poll has Biden as a law and order candidate, 50 to 41. I look at the right track, wrong track polls, which has been the most accurate predictor, and basically all four incumbents that won were around 45, 46%. The ones who lost were between 17 and 20%. He's at 19%.

"I look at undecided voters, if you have to vote for somebody they vote for Biden. It is so overwhelming against him, I come back to, there's one of two alternatives. He steals the election, or he quits. One or the other. There's no path to victory right now."

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